中国第三季度GDP同比增长6.8%

编辑:给力英语新闻 更新:2017年10月19日 作者:纽约时报中文网(By KEITH BRADSHER)

上海的购物者。零售支出、住房销售和贸易数字表明中国经济在政府引导下稳步增长。
上海的购物者。零售支出、住房销售和贸易数字表明中国经济在政府引导下稳步增长。

北京——中国依靠一种已证明行之有效的方案,在三个月内再次制造可观增长。

国有银行的大量贷款、活跃的政府支出以及强劲的出口,帮助中国经济保持了活跃而稳定的增长。中国统计机构于周四表示,7月到9月期间,中国经济与去年同期相比增长了6.8%。

中国国家主席习近平对几乎所有政府部门都施加了巨大压力,要求它们确保经济的稳固发展。本周,中国共产党召开了五年一度的代表大会,在这样的时刻,国家领导人希望局面稳定,并且展现自己的强大形象。

周四公布的数据与近几个季度以来的其他统计数据很相似,这一趋势令许多经济学家怀疑这些见诸报端的中国主要经济数据是否可靠。不过,零售支出、住房销售和贸易数额等其他数据同样表明,中国经济在政府指导下继续稳步增长。

发放贷款

中国官员说,他们正在努力控制该国膨胀的债务。第三季度可能不是一个很好的例子。根据中国的数据,8月到9月期间,信贷和货币供应量的增长速度比经济增长速度快。

在北京的敦促之下,为推动发展,银行和其他贷款机构放出巨额贷款,造成过去十年间中国出现债务急升。这令人们担忧世界第二大经济体的金融体系是否稳定。

中国的债务积累在最近几个季度开始放缓,表明该国领导人正在处理这个问题。但是西方一些专家怀疑中国究竟做了多少努力。

“虽然近期遏制金融风险的政策已经放缓了债务积累的速度,但中国还没有实现债务比率的稳定化,而且远远没有达到彻底的去杠杆,”惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)的主权评级总监费安德(Andrew Fennell)在电子邮件中说。

打造繁荣

习近平于周三在中国共产党代表大会上作报告时说,“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的。”

许多中国人的感受显然恰好相反。在北京和上海这样的城市,房价上涨令一些消费者感受到繁荣,但也令人们担心自己是否买得起,以及房价是否有可能突然下降。中国官员近几个月来一直在其最大的城市限制同住房相关的融资,并采取其他相关措施,阻止房价急剧上升。

不仅是住房问题。上月中国对固定资产投资的大幅增加,再次突显出道路、桥梁等基础设施建设的核心地位。相当多的建设来自地方政府,它们的债务问题在中国目前沉重的债务负担中占据很大部分。

担任央行行长多年的周小川于周日在华盛顿发表讲话时警告说,中国国有企业累积的大部分债务,实际上可能反映着地方政府的隐形借贷。

“中国地方政府从各种融资平台借款,形成了较多的债务,”他说。

消费升级

中国第三季度取得的业绩也要感谢整个世界。随着全球经济复苏,对中国制造商品的需求出现回升,令中国出口呈现健康增长态势。

当然,中国经济的成功只是部分建立在出口上。然而,随着中国工人的要求日益增加,中国不再能与成本更为低廉的国家竞争。因此中国正在努力转向制造更有价值的产品,这将有助于发展经济,培育新一代更有经验、技术更加娴熟的工人。

中国在本季度还购买了更多世界各地制造的产品。其进口增长速度远高于出口,部分原因是中国货币走强,增加了消费者对海外产品的购买力。这也表明中国的许多消费者现在敢于花钱了。

China’s Economy Grew Steadily, Thanks to Loans and Homes

BEIJING — China turned to a tried-and-true recipe to cook up another three months of respectable growth.

Heavy lending by state-owned banks, brisk government spending and strong exports helped keep China’s economy growing briskly and steadily. China’s statistical agency said on Thursday that the economy had grown 6.8 percent in the July-to-September period, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

President Xi Jinping had put heavy pressure on practically every government ministry to make sure that the economy put in a solid performance. The Chinese Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress began this week, and it’s a time when the country’s leaders want predictability and an image of strength.

The figure announced on Thursday was similar to other results from recent quarters, a trend that makes many economists doubt the reliability of China’s headline economic numbers. Still other figures — including retail spending, housing sales and trade figures — suggest an economy growing steadily under the guiding hand of the government.

Pumping Out Credit

Chinese officials say they are working hard to control China’s ballooning debt. The third quarter may not be a good example of that. Measures of credit and money supply grew faster than the economy itself in August and September, according to Chinese data.

China’s debt has soared over the past decade as banks and other lenders, working at the urging of Beijing, turned on money spigots to fuel growth. That has led to worries about the stability of the financial system powering the world’s second-largest economy.

Chinese debt accumulation had slowed in some recent quarters, suggesting that the country’s leaders were getting a handle on the problem. But some Western experts are skeptical that China has really done much.

“While recent policies to contain financial risks have slowed the pace of debt accumulation, China has yet to achieve stabilizing debt ratios, and is farther still from outright deleveraging,” Andrew Fennell, the director of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings, wrote in an email.

Building Boom

Addressing the Communist Party Congress on Wednesday, Mr. Xi told officials, “Real estate is for living in, not for speculation.”

Plenty of people in China apparently feel otherwise. Surging prices in cities like Beijing and Shanghai have led some consumers to feel prosperous but have raised concerns about housing affordability and the potential for sudden drops. Chinese officials have worked in recent months to limit housing-related financing in the biggest cities, among other steps to stop the surge.

It is not just housing. A strong increase in fixed-asset investment last month reaffirmed the central importance of construction that includes roads, bridges and other infrastructure. Considerable building has come from local governments, which contributed heavily to China’s current hefty debt load.

Zhou Xiaochuan, the long-serving governor of the central bank, warned in a speech in Washington on Sunday that a large chunk of the debt accumulated by Chinese state-owned enterprises might actually represent disguised borrowing by local governments.

“Chinese local governments borrowed money from various financing platforms, which caused relatively too much debt,” he said.

Trading Up

China can thank the world for some of its third-quarter performance. Its exports grew at a healthy pace as a global economic recovery improved demand for Chinese-made goods.

Of course, China’s economic success is partly built on exports. Yet China can no longer compete on costs against cheaper countries as its workers demand more. China is trying to shift to manufacturing more valuable products, which would help it develop its economy and nurture a new generation of more sophisticated, technically adept workers.

China also bought up more of the world’s products during the quarter. Its imports grew faster than exports, thanks in part to China’s stronger currency, which gives consumers more firepower when purchasing things from abroad. That also signals that many of China’s consumers feel comfortable spending money.