川普即将出访亚洲,朝鲜问题最大看点

编辑:给力英语新闻 更新:2017年10月27日 作者:美国之音帕登(Brian Padden)

(资料照)美国总统川普2017年10月11日在宾夕法尼亚州的哈里斯堡国际机场参加活动
(资料照)美国总统川普2017年10月11日在宾夕法尼亚州的哈里斯堡国际机场参加活动

美国总统川普11月初前往亚洲地区进行首次正式访问,预计美国在亚洲的主要军事盟友将着重于双方达成共识的领域。

川普总统11月3日将展开为期12天的亚洲之旅,访问日本、韩国、中国、越南和菲律宾,并参加在越南举行的亚太经合组织首脑会议。

不过,川普总统不会参加由东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)组织的东亚峰会,届时区域领导人将重点关注朝鲜核威胁等安全问题。川普行政当局没有提出不参加东盟会议的具体理由,只是表示这是“时间安排”决定的。

川普总统在与地区领导人会晤时,将会提出加大国际支持力度,迫使平壤金正恩政权放弃核武和弹道导弹项目的开发。

防止朝鲜发展可能到达美国本土的核洲际弹道导弹已成为美国的首要国家安全问题。

首尔延世大学国际关系教授约翰·德里埃(John Delury)说,“他将要对朝鲜做什么引起各方期待。如果他不做,就会严重影响到他的形象,让他的影响力受到削弱。”

美国最近与中国和俄罗斯一起在联合国通过更严厉的经济制裁措施,可以将朝鲜贸易减少90%,石油进口减少30%。美国也对与金正恩政权有业务的国际公司进行次级制裁,并敦促其他国家禁用朝鲜劳工,限制与平壤的外交关系。

朝鲜则以加速导弹和核试验对制裁作出反应,并辩称需要核威慑来防止以美国为首的入侵。

日本强硬路线

但是,在川普强调如果受到挑衅,可能会以军事力量以及他“烈火怒焰”的威胁性用语“彻底摧毁”朝鲜时,美国的军事盟友日本和韩国对此意见不一。

在日本,川普将与首相安倍晋三(也许是他在亚洲最亲密的朋友)会面,并可能一起去打高尔夫球。安倍在川普就职前访问当时新当选总统的川普时,两人建立了密切的关系。

韩国世宗研究所的安全问题研究员斯特劳布(David Straub)说:“川普总统和安倍首相在许多问题上持有一致意见,特别是关于朝鲜问题。”

安倍表示强烈支持川普以“所有选项”和“最大压力”应对朝鲜的政策,包括可能使用军事力量,并表示试图“与朝鲜进行更多对话将是一个死胡同”。

安倍在国家安全问题上的坚定立场赢得了日本公众的支持。朝鲜发射了两枚中程导弹飞越日本领空,还威胁要将日本“沉入海中”。

安倍的保守联盟在本周举行的早期议会选举中取得了决定性的胜利,他们承诺要通过增加军事威慑力度和与美国的朝鲜政策坚决保持一致来对抗朝鲜的威胁。

但是,东京的官员也一直谨慎地淡化美国对朝鲜进行预防性军事攻击的可能性,并暗地表示美国的军事威胁是促使中国和朝鲜做出让步的外交手段。

斯特劳布说,“我想如果可能的话,安倍首相也不想看到朝鲜半岛上有任何重大冲突。因为这样会给日本造成很大的风险,也是非常不可预知的。”

安倍首相和川普总统也可能会淡化贸易问题上的分歧。安倍仍希望能够在某种形式上恢复跨太平洋伙伴关系(TPP)多边贸易协议。川普退出TPP,并表示倾向于发展能给美国带来更多制造业工作机会的双边贸易协议。

韩国悄然无声

韩国总统文在寅预计与川普在首尔会面时也将强调韩国与美国之间长期以来的“牢固”联盟。

但是,这位自由派的韩国领导人正努力在他所主张的对话与华盛顿的强硬立场之间做出调和。文在寅强烈反对在朝鲜半岛使用军事力量,特别是美国首先发动对朝鲜的核武及导弹发射场所的袭击。分析人士说,先发制人的打击可能会导致一场对汉城居住在边界地区朝鲜炮火射程内的数百万人口的报复性袭击,也可能升级为毁灭性的地区核战争。

首尔延世大学的德里埃教授说,“我认为川普的这次访问是一个让他了解韩国人如何看待这个问题的机会。韩国现在已经在可怕的核攻击威胁之下生活很久了,我们都活得很好。”

川普已经表示,文在寅与朝鲜对话的努力是不可行的绥靖做法。

目前,在朝鲜继续进行导弹及核试验,平壤又拒绝参与朝鲜半岛谈判,甚至拒绝接受韩国提供的人道主义援助的情况下,首尔与华盛顿之间的分歧暂时消声。

川普曾暗示,他可能会像他的前任奥巴马和乔治·W·布什等多数访问韩国的美国领导人那样,访问南北韩之间的非军事区,但是这一计划还没最后确定。

川普计划参观位于首尔南部最近扩大的汉普莱斯基地,那里将成为驻韩美军的总部。

川普总统预计还将讨论美国与韩国的贸易赤字问题,并争取重新谈判美韩自由贸易协定的条款。首尔官员表示,贸易协议有助于两国经济,韩国在美国的投资已经给美国带来了许多就业机会。

US Allies in Asia Expected to Handle Trump with Care

The United States' key military allies in Asia are expected to focus on areas of mutual agreement when President Donald Trump makes his first official visit to the region.

On November 3, President Trump will embark on a 12-day trip to Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, where he will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, and the Philippines.

However the president will not stay to attend the East Asia Summit organized by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), where regional leaders will focus on security issues like the North Korea nuclear threat. The Trump administration gave no specific reason for missing the ASEAN conference other than to say that the decision was “schedule driven.”

During his meetings with leaders in the region, President Trump plans to advocate for increased international support to pressure the Kim Jong Un regime in Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

Preventing North Korea from developing a nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could reach the U.S. mainland has become a top national security priority for Trump.

“He has raised all kinds of expectations about what he’s going to do about North Korea. And if he doesn’t do those things then it seriously threatens his identity, it undermines him, it undercuts him,” said John Delury, an international relations professor at Yonsei University in Seoul.

The United States recently worked with China and Russia in the United Nations to pass tougher economic sanctions that could reduce North Korean trade by 90 percent and oil imports by 30 percent.

The U.S. has also imposed secondary sanctions on international companies that do business with the Kim Jong Un regime, and is urging other countries to ban North Korean workers and restrict diplomatic ties with Pyongyang.

North Korea has defiantly responded to sanctions by accelerating missile and nuclear tests, and has defended its need for a nuclear deterrent to prevent a U.S.-led invasion.

Hardline Japan

However U.S. military allies Japan and South Korea have been split over Trump’s emphasis on the possible use of military force and his threatening “fire and fury” rhetoric to “totally destroy” North Korea if provoked.

In Japan, Trump will meet and likely play golf with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, perhaps his closest friend in Asia. The two leaders established a close professional relationship when the prime minister visited the newly elected president prior to his inauguration.

“President Trump and Prime Minster Abe also agree on a number of issues including in particular on the North Korea problem,” said security analyst David Straub with the Sejong Institute.

Abe has voiced strong support for Trump’s “all options” and “maximum pressure” North Korea policy that includes the possible use of military force, and has said that attempting “more dialogue with North Korea would be a dead end.”

Public support In Japan has coalesced around Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s strong stance on national security after North Korea fired two intermediate range missiles over Japanese airspace and threatened to "sink" Japan into the sea.

Promising to counter the North Korean threat by increasing military deterrence and strongly aligning with U.S. policy on North Korea, Abe’s conservative coalition won a decisive victory in an early parliamentary election held this week.

But officials in Tokyo have also been careful to downplay the possibility of a U.S. preventive military attack on North Korea, and have quietly indicated that the threat of military force is a diplomatic tactic to extract concessions from China and North Korea.

“I suspect Prime Minster Abe too would not want to see, if at all possible, any major conflict on the peninsula, because that would carry enormous risks that are quite unpredictable for Japan as well,” said Straub.

The Japanese prime minister and U.S. president will also likely downplay differences over trade. Abe still hopes to resurrect some form of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) multi-lateral trade deal. Trump withdrew from the TPP and has indicated a preference for developing bilateral trade agreements that will produce more U.S. manufacturing jobs.

Muted South Korea

South Korean President Moon Jae-in is also expected to emphasize his country’s longstanding “ironclad” U.S. alliance when he meets with Trump in Seoul.

However, the liberal South Korean leader has struggled to reconcile his emphasis on dialogue and engagement with Washington’s hardline position.

Moon strongly opposes any use of military force on the Korean Peninsula, particularly a U.S. first strike on North Korean nuclear or missile sites. Analysts say a preventive strike would likely provoke a retaliatory attack against the millions of people in Seoul who live within range of North Korean artillery at the border, and may also escalate into a devastating, regional nuclear war.

“I think Trump’s visit is an opportunity to educate him in terms of how South Koreans see this, and the fact that South Korea has been living under a credible threat of nuclear attack for a while now, and we are all doing fine,” said Delury.

Trump has characterized Moon’s efforts to engage North Korea in dialogue as unworkable appeasement.

For now, differences between Seoul and Washington have been muted in the face of North Korea’s continued missile and nuclear tests, and Pyongyang’s refusal to engage in inter-Korean talks or even accept offers of humanitarian aid from the South.

Trump has hinted he may visit the demilitarized zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea, as most visiting U.S. leaders, including former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush, have done. But no such plans have been confirmed.

The president is scheduled to visit the recently expanded Camp Humphreys, located south of Seoul, which will become the main headquarters for U.S. forces in Korea.

President Trump is also expected to address the U.S. trade deficit with South Korea and argue for renegotiating terms of the U.S./South Korea Free Trade Agreement. Officials in Seoul say the trade deal has helped both economies and that South Korean investment in the United States has generated many American jobs.

Youmi Kim in Seoul contributed to this report.