杜特地有意改善菲美关系,但更想讨好中国

编辑:给力英语新闻 更新:2017年11月13日 作者:纽约时报(By RICHARD C. PADDOCK and FELIPE VILLAMOR)

周日,特朗普总统(左)和菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特蒂及其伴侣谢力托·亚曼西纳在马尼拉的一场宴会上。
周日,特朗普总统(左)和菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特蒂及其伴侣谢力托·亚曼西纳在马尼拉的一场宴会上。

曼谷——菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特地(Rodrigo Duterte)很少退缩。

他发起的禁毒运动导致数千人未按法律程序遭到杀害。他喜欢吹嘘他本人如何杀死犯罪分子,乃至陌生人。他对不喜欢的国家和世界名人大放厥词,美国也常常是他抨击的对象。

但更为不声不响的一点是,他对美国和风格同样非常有争议的唐纳德·特朗普总统的态度,似乎变温和了。

东南亚国家联盟(Association of Southeast Asian Nations,简称东盟)峰会将于周日在菲律宾举行。届时,在与特朗普的会面,以及加强与中国的关系这个外交政策目标中,杜特地可能会表现出他个性中更迷人的一面。

他在说到美国时言辞出现变化的一大原因很清楚:在杜特地眼中,特朗普明显比贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)有进步。奥巴马曾敦促这位菲律宾领导人在解决非法毒品交易时遵守法治。

周六,特朗普和杜特地在越南出席一场经济峰会期间首次会面。菲律宾官方称,两人握手并热情地谈到了在接下来的两天进行一次更详细的商谈。

“两人像朋友一样交谈,”菲律宾非营利民主促进组织——政治与选举改革研究所(Institute for Political and Electoral Reform)所长拉蒙·卡西普雷(Ramon Casiple)说。“我看不出来在他们面对面时会有什么大问题。”

但杜特地更为长远的策略是他讨好中国的决心。自当选以来,他在与北京的领土争端上做出了让步——他上周叫停了南海一个引发中国不满的建造项目——尽管他当选总统后不久,一份国际裁决支持菲律宾。

杜特地的发言人哈里·罗克(Harry Roque)说,他的政策是有意加强与亚洲国家,尤其是与中国的关系。

马尼拉德拉萨大学(De La Salle University)的助理政治学教授理查德·贾瓦德·海达里恩(Richard Javad Heydarian)说,杜特地希望自己的战略能够带来中国的大量投资,但中国的投资来得很慢。

不过,美国和这个曾是其殖民地的国家仍是有条约在身的盟友,双方有着悠久的合作历史。并且显然杜特地和特朗普的风格看上去更多的是相互契合,而非彼此冲突。

特朗普4月致电杜特地并祝贺他“在毒品问题上的工作成绩惊人”,为改善关系奠定了基础。美国还提供了宝贵的军事援助,包括无人机和情报。事实证明,它们在菲律宾围攻马拉维市五个月并打败伊斯兰派极端分子中起了重要作用。围攻已于上月结束。

周日,特朗普提出帮助调节南海争端。南海争端也导致中国站在了越南和该地区其他国家的对立面。“我是一个很棒的调解人和仲裁人,”他在河内与越南国家主席陈大光(Tran Dai Quang)的会面一开始就说。

去年,杜特地主张“脱离”美国,威胁要驱逐美军,并指控中央情报局(CIA)密谋杀害他。被问及如果美国总统批评他领导的禁毒运动,他会如何回应时,杜特地用了一个粗鲁的词描述时任美国总统的奥巴马。

杜特地的发言人罗克说,杜特地是在看到美国在马拉维提供的帮助的价值后,才改变语气的。

“他最近没有批评美国,”罗克在采访中说。“他期待与美国建立更加密切的关系。”

周日抵达菲律宾时,特朗普遭到了在街头游行示威的左翼活动人士、人权组织和学生的抗议。两位领导人计划在马尼拉举行双边会谈,但周日晚上,特朗普身着传统的菲律宾礼服衬衫巴隆现身一场宴会,并与杜特地握手。

通过生意,特朗普与菲律宾已有多年的往来,并且在他此次到访之前,他的品牌早已进入菲律宾。在大都会马尼拉,57层的住宅楼世纪城特朗普大厦(Trump Tower at Century City)已于2012年开工建设。投资1.5亿美元(约合10亿元人民币)的该项目,是对特朗普构成潜在利益冲突的几项国际交易之一。

杜特地凭借消灭吸毒人员的承诺赢得选举,并表示要用他们的尸体把马尼拉湾的鱼喂肥。在禁毒运动的头几个月,警方称已消灭数千名吸毒人员。但随着法外杀戮的继续,他们拒绝再公布死亡人数。

杜特地去年以39%的得票率赢得选举,但在杀戮开始后,他的受欢迎程度飙升。尽管最近几个月支持率有所下滑,但非营利组织社会气象站(Social Weather Stations)进行的一项调查显示,9月他的支持率仍保持在67%。

尽管以前的美国总统会利用与外国领导人的会面宣传人权,但活动人士对特朗普会向杜特地提起法外杀戮一事几乎不抱希望。

“我强烈怀疑我们会看到两人表现出男性精英之间的惺惺相惜,”人权观察组织(Human Rights Watch)亚洲分部副主任林海(Phelim Kine)说。“很多作为美菲关系基础的问题不会被提及,法治是其中之一。”

Richard C. Paddock自曼谷、Felipe Villamor自马尼拉报道。Julie Hirschfeld Davis对本文有报道贡献。

翻译:陈亦亭

Duterte Warms to Trump, but Keeps His Focus on China

BANGKOK — The president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, seldom holds back.

His anti-drug crusade has led to the extrajudicial killings of thousands of people. He is fond of boasting about how he has personally killed criminals and even strangers. He unleashes profane diatribes about countries and world figures he dislikes, with the United States often on the receiving end.

But more quietly, he seems to have warmed to the United States and President Donald Trump, who also has a notably provocative style.

As his country hosts a summit meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, on Sunday, the more charming side of Duterte’s personality is likely to be on display, both in his meetings with Trump and in his foreign policy goal of closer relations with China.

One big reason for his shift in rhetoric when it comes to the United States is clear: Trump is a marked improvement in Duterte’s eyes over Barack Obama, who urged the Philippines leader to follow the rule of law in tackling the illegal drug trade.

On Saturday, Trump and Duterte met for the first time on the sidelines of an economic summit meeting in Vietnam. The two shook hands and spoke warmly about having a longer discussion over the next two days, Philippines officials said.

“These two are talking as friends,” said Ramon Casiple, the executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, a nonprofit promoting democracy in the Philippines. “I don’t see any reasons when they meet face-to-face that there will be any big problems.”

But the longer-term game for Duterte has been his determination to court China. Since his election, he has backed down from contentious territorial disputes with Beijing — last week, he halted a construction project in the South China Sea that brought Chinese complaints — despite an international ruling early in his presidency that backed the Philippines.

Harry Roque, a spokesman for Duterte, described his policy as a deliberate turn toward closer relationships with countries in Asia, and with China in particular.

Duterte hopes his strategy will bring billions of dollars in investment from China, although the money has been slow in coming, said Richard Javad Heydarian, an assistant professor of political science at De La Salle University in Manila.

Still, the United States and its former colony are treaty allies with a long history of cooperation. And it is clear that Duterte’s and Trump’s styles seem to mesh more than clash.

Trump set the stage for improved relations when he called Duterte in April and congratulated him for doing an “unbelievable job on the drug problem.” The United States also provided valuable military assistance — including drones and intelligence — that proved instrumental in defeating Islamic extremists during a five-month siege of Marawi City, which ended last month.

On Sunday, Trump offered to help mediate the disputes in the South China Sea, which have also pit China against Vietnam and other countries in the region. “I’m a very good mediator and arbitrator,” he said at the start of a meeting in Hanoi with Vietnam’s president, Tran Dai Quang.

Last year, Duterte called for a “separation” from the United States, threatened to expel U.S. troops and accused the CIA of plotting to kill him. When asked how he would respond if the U.S. president were to criticize his anti-drug campaign, Duterte replied with a vulgar epithet to describe Obama, who was president at the time.

Roque, the spokesman, said that Duterte changed his tune after seeing the value of U.S. help in Marawi.

“He hasn’t been criticizing the United States lately,” Roque said in an interview. “He looks forward to closer ties with the United States.”

Trump landed in the Philippines on Sunday to protests by leftist activists, rights groups and students, who marched in the streets. The two presidents were scheduled to hold bilateral talks in Manila, but the U.S. leader appeared in the traditional Filipino dress-shirt called a barong at a dinner Sunday night, and shook hands with Duterte.

Trump has been tied to the Philippines for years through his business dealings, and before this trip, his brand had arrived well ahead of him. Trump Tower at Century City, a $150 million, 57-story residential building, has been under construction since 2012 in metropolitan Manila. It is one of several international business deals that pose potential conflicts of interest for Trump.

Duterte won election on a promise to kill drug users and said that the fish in Manila Bay would grow fat feeding on their corpses. In the early months of the anti-drug campaign, the police said that thousands of drug users had been killed. But as the extrajudicial killing has continued, they have refused to release the death toll.

Duterte won election last year with 39 percent of the vote, but his popularity soared after the killings began. While his support rating has declined in recent months, it still stood at 67 percent in September, according to a survey by the nonprofit Social Weather Stations.

While past U.S. presidents have used meetings with foreign leaders to promote human rights, activists have little expectation that Trump will raise the extrajudicial killings with Duterte.

“I strongly suspect we will see an alpha-male bromance between the two,” said Phelim Kine, the Human Rights Watch deputy director for Asia. “A lot of the issues that underpin the U.S.-Philippine relations will go unaddressed, and one of those will be rule of law.”

Richard C. Paddock reported from Bangkok, and Felipe Villamor from Manila. Julie Hirschfeld Davis contributed reporting from Manila.