东南亚内部斗争的同时寻求外部盟友

编辑:给力英语新闻 更新:2017年11月13日 作者:美国之音詹宁斯(Ralph Jennings)

在东盟国家领导人在马尼拉召开峰会前,防暴警察在菲律宾文化中心前集合。(2017年11月11日)
在东盟国家领导人在马尼拉召开峰会前,防暴警察在菲律宾文化中心前集合。(2017年11月11日)Anti-riot police officers gather near the Cultural Center of the Philippines ahead of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and related meetings in Manila, Nov. 11, 2017.

十个东南亚国家,其中包括某些发展速度世界最快国家的高级领导人,预计在本星期菲律宾举行的贸易、投资和安全首脑会议上借助世界主要大国的帮助取得共同进步。

但是分析人士认为,他们很可能期望过高。

东盟成员国政府首脑星期天陆续抵达马尼拉,参加星期二以前举行的系列高峰会议。他们前来签署一项同香港的自由贸易协议,并且发表保护外来劳工的宣言。

有的国家将在星期一分享小企业获得资金同大企业竞争的经验。

剧普遍预计,这些领导人将赞同实现朝鲜无核化以及南中国海和平的努力,东盟的四个成员国在资源丰富的水域与北京有争端。

另外,他们可能还考虑一项反对恐怖主义和极端主义的决议。

国家间的猜忌

不过,东盟成员国对外部大国满腹狐疑的同时,在老的历史问题上依然彼此耿耿于怀,例如柬埔寨和越南。他们中有的本星期将参加第31届东盟首脑会议。中国、印度、日本、俄罗斯、美国等另外四个其他国领导人也将参加。

中国为贸易便利,已向东南亚广泛提供开发援助,然而,为避免在自然资源或者主权问题上向北京让步,以此作为可能的偿还,这些国家政府更倾向于加强同美国的关系。

他们希望美国总统川普本星期在马尼拉向他们做出保证,但是并不期待在武器销售这样的问题上会有现实突破。

鉴于经济关系较弱,也将派代表团出席这次会议的俄罗斯被认为对此没有兴趣。而印度与越南的经济合作也只是刚刚起步。

新加坡拉贾拉南国际问题学院高级研究员克里斯·郑(Chris Cheang)在该学院网站上撰文说:“俄罗斯-东盟关系未来几年的发展速度将呈缓慢和增长态势。”

克里斯·郑说:“同中美两国不同,首先,俄罗斯没有与东南亚强劲关系的传统。上世纪六十年代,除同越南和印尼外,莫斯科与该地区没有什么关系可言。”

取悦川普

东南亚国家预计将特别寻求川普帮忙,11月3日以来川普亚洲各地对东道主发表了溢美之词。马来西亚和新加坡政府顺应川普美国优先的理念,年初时宣布了购买美国波音公司飞机的计划。

分析人士说,为赢得华盛顿更多支持,东南亚国家领导人可能支持川普制止朝鲜发展导弹和核武器的雄心。不过,分析人士警告,川普为维护其美国优先原则,可能不会做出什么报答。

例如,占据美国市场很大份额的出口国越南,希望美国帮助在南中国海地区抗衡北京,并且同美国进一步实现贸易自由化。越南也同中国在南中国海部分地区激烈争夺,1974年以来导致冲突间断性爆发。

胡志明市社会科学与人文大学国际关系主任阮忠(Trung Nguyen)举例说:“我认为,越南政府希望得到川普总统的保证,美国将在维护南中国海自由航行,以及在对中国未来行为做出反应等方面上发挥领导作用。”

川普星期天早些时候在河内会晤越南领导人时,主动提出帮助解决南中国海争端问题。川普表示:“假如我能斡旋或者裁决,就请告诉我。我是一个很好的调停者。”

但是有专家认为,东南亚领导人为了和中国相处,很可能低调处理南中国海争端问题。

这次峰会的东道主菲律宾去年为建立与北京的友好关系,搁置了海洋主权争议,换来北京承诺提供价值240亿美元的援助和投资。虽然文莱、马来西亚和印尼同中国有领土争议,他们也加强了同中国的经济关系。

新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究所的研究员黎洪和(Le Hong Hiep)说:“我认为,他们将讨论朝鲜核威胁、恐怖主义和极端主义等重大安全问题。我不知道,他们将如何实质性地强调南中国海争端问题。”

东南亚地区资本分配

在星期一东盟商业和投资峰会上,有关官员将讨论东南亚小型企业获得资金的途径,以便同地区内占主导地位的大公司竞争。

但是,东盟商业顾问理事会主席孔塞普西翁说,东南亚各国彼此竞争投资之际,这种努力很可能会进一步强化。 日本和中国这样的外部捐助国利用援助,在东南亚彼此争取支持。

首脑会议的组织者拒绝证实非东盟国家可能将在这次活动中主动提出的帮助。

孔塞普西翁在一次记者会上表示:“我们努力构建十国兄弟关系之际,彼此竞争的确继续存在。” 但是他表示:“不能只让大公司发展,小兄弟原地踏步。大家的繁荣一定会受到挑战。”

具有50年历史、涵盖6亿3000万人口的东盟,为自己通过自由贸易和移民达成包容协议,借此解决成员国之间的争端而引以自豪。

一系列非自由化措施使得柬埔寨和菲律宾这样的国家在经济上实现了每年百分之六以上的增长。

Trump Wishes Happy Birthday to US Marine Corps

Senior officials from 10 Southeast Asian countries, including some of the world’s fastest-growing, expect joint progress at summits in the Philippines this week on trade, investment and security with help from major world powers.

But analysts say they are unlikely to get too far.

Heads of state from members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) arrived one by one Sunday for a series of summits in Manila through Tuesday. They came to sign a free-trade agreement with Hong Kong and issue a proclamation on protecting migrant workers.

Some will share tips at a forum Monday on how small enterprises can get money to vie with big ones.

The leaders are widely expected to endorse efforts toward a denuclearized North Korea and peace in the South China Sea, where four ASEAN members dispute resource-rich tracts of water with Beijing.

Separately they may consider a resolution against terrorism and extremism.

Cross-border suspicions

But ASEAN member countries also resent each other over old historical issues — to wit Cambodia and Vietnam — while harboring suspicions of outside powers, some of whom will attend the 31st ASEAN Summit this week. Leaders from China, India, Japan, Russia, the United States and four other countries will join.

China is already offering development aid around Southeast Asia to smooth trade, yet to avoid possible payback such as ceding natural resources or sovereignty to Beijing, those governments prefer a stronger U.S. role.

They hope U.S. President Donald Trump gives them reassurances in Manila this week but expect no tangible breakthrough such as arms sales.

Russia, which will send a delegation, is also considered disinterested due to relatively weak economic ties, while India is just getting started via economic cooperation with Vietnam.

“Russia-ASEAN relations are likely to develop in a slow, incremental fashion over the next few years,” Chris Cheang, senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said on the school’s website.

"To begin with, unlike China and the U.S., Russia has had no tradition of strong relations with Southeast Asia," said Cheang. "Except with Vietnam and Indonesia in the 60s, Moscow’s links with the region had been little to speak of.”

Making Trump happy

Southeast Asian countries are expected to seek favor particularly with Trump, who has made complimentary remarks to hosts around Asia on a tour since November 3. Playing to Trump's America-first ideals, Malaysia and Singapore announced plans earlier this year to buy aircraft from Boeing.

To win more support in Washington, Southeast Asian leaders may voice support for Trump’s ambition to stop the development of missiles and nuclear weapons in North Korea, analysts say. But, they warn, Trump may not give much back, in keeping with his America-first principles.

For example, Vietnam, an exporter nation with a U.S. large market, wants American help resisting Beijing in the South China Sea, as well as more trade liberalization with the U.S.. It also bitterly contests part of the sea with China, leading to periodic clashes since 1974.

“I think that the Vietnamese government wants some assurance from President Trump that the U.S. will play a front role in maintaining the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea as well as some response to future assertive Chinese behavior,” said Trung Nguyen, international relations dean at Ho Chih Minh University of Social Sciences and Humanities, citing one example.

In Hanoi earlier Sunday to meet Vietnamese leaders, Trump offered to help settle South China Sea disputes. “If I can help mediate or arbitrate, please let me know,” he said. “I am a very good mediator.”

But Southeast Asian leaders may play down the South China Sea dispute to get along with China, experts believe.

Summit host the Philippines set aside its maritime sovereignty contests last year to build friendship with Beijing, which in turn pledged aid and investment worth $24 billion. Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia have their own tight economic relations with China despite territorial disagreements.

“I think they will discuss major security issues like the North Korea nuclear threat, terrorism [and] extremism,” said Le Hong Hiep, research fellow with ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “I’m not sure how much substance or how much emphasis they will put on the South China Sea dispute.”

Spreading capital around the region

At the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit Monday, officials will discuss ways that smaller firms in Southeast Asia can find capital to vie with the region’s dominant large corporations.

But that effort could grow tense as Southeast Asian countries compete with one another for investments, said Joey Concepcion, ASEAN Business Advisory Council Chair. Outside donors such as Japan and China use aid to vie with each other for favors in Southeast Asia.

Summit organizers declined to say what non-ASEAN countries might offer at the event.

“When we are trying to form this brotherhood of 10 countries, definitely competition continuously exists,” Concepcion told a news conference. But, he said, “you can’t just leave the large corporations growing and the small guys staying where they are. Prosperity for all will definitely be severely challenged.”

The 50-year-old association encompassing 630 million people prides itself on overcoming disputes among members by reaching all-inclusive agreements on free trade and immigration.

Those liberalizations have helped countries such as Cambodia and the Philippines grow economically at more than six percent a year.